Predictions – past and present.
See this.
As I always try to be fair and honest, it would seem that a number of my predictions from last year either didn’t come to pass or that the situation is uncertain. 2021 was a strange year of “stasis” for Der Movement, where fundraising was the major concern. Let us fisk my predictions from last December:
Will Nick Fuentes begin to replace Richard Spencer as the bogeyman for Greg Johnson?
Mixed – LeBlanc is pro-Fuentes, some Counter-Currents commentators are critical, and Johnson himself has been mostly silent on the subject.
Spencer leaving Der Movement, again 50:50 for 2021; I would say 80:20 for the next five years.
His status is murky, but it is looking more and more that he’s functionally out. Another interpretation is that he just was saying he regrets his time in the Alt Right and some of his more stupid actions, but regardless, looking at his behavior over the last year or so, there is a pattern of distancing himself from Der Movement. Now, one could say that’s a good thing and is similar to my own disgust with Der Movement. Two differences: First, I was never a “leader,” someone handpicked by older Quota Queens to be groomed as a replacement; second, it is hard to take seriously someone on the Far Right who non-ironically (as he claimed) endorsed and voted for Joe Biden because “liberals are more competent.” We will no doubt eventually observe the next installment of the Richard Spencer saga.
If and when crackdowns on the Right commences, will important moles and infiltrators be revealed?
Not yet.
Likely another archaeogenetics disaster for Der Movement will occur – Ancient Egypt?
No, not in 2021, maybe in 2022. The Etruscan paper in 2021 was a mixed bag for Der Movement, with most of the dubious positives for fetishists coming solely from the overt bias of the authors and not from the raw data. For another view, see this.
The decline of Groyperism?
As chronicled at Counter-Currents, there are definitely cracks in the façade, with all of the infighting, but, unfortunately, it is still going strong.
Chances of a Trump indictment in 2021, state and/or federal: 60:40; over the next four years, 80:20
Not yet.
It is likely that some unpleasant “dirt” on the Trump Presidency will come out that will be disturbing to Der Movement – evidence of Trump’s insincerity, or perhaps an illumination as to the degree of power Kushner has had over the Trump Presidency.
Nothing much yet.
We will continue to see more evidence of the HBD-Nordicist-ethnonationalist alliance, including, but not limited to, the declining Counter Currents exhibiting a “woke” “White nationalism” comfortable for “Rosie and the kids.” And more dogmatic Nordicism, no doubt, regardless of Johnson’s claims to the contrary in a livestream. The Johnsonian ethnostate: Nordics, East Asians, Jews, and homosexuals of all types.
Well, that was the one prediction that hit the bullseye. 100% on target! See this. If the Alt-Right was “Beavis-and-Butthead White nationalism” then the current fiasco that is emerging can be termed “Rosie and the Kids White Nationalism.”
But, on the other hand, what to make of the brief burst of fervid anti-MacDonaldism that erupted at Counter-Currents in December? Was it a brief passing storm signifying nothing or the portent of more to come? It could be simply tit-for-tat: MacDonald allows Joyce to do his thing and in response Johnson lets “Hamilton” (and fellow-traveler commentators) do his thing. It is something to keep on eye on, but one cannot read too much into it; after all, the Quota Queens tend to remember that they need to “circle the wagons” to protect their mutual affirmative action advantages (although Johnson’s hatred of Spencer is too much to overcome, even to protect their shared quota benefits).
For the most part, Counter-Currents/Johnson and TOO/MacDonald have gone their separate ways, without much interaction, positive or negative.
The “movement” grifters will keep on grifting.
That’s right on the money (no pun intended?), but that’s not really much of a prediction, is it?
Will Jim Goad finish out 2021 still affiliated with Counter-Currents? I’d say a better than even chance, but no way is it 100%. Assuming Counter-Currents is still around by the time of the next Presidential election – chances that Goad is still affiliated – no more than 40%.
He’s still around. We’ll see how long it lasts.
I would like to point out that my general prediction of the past few years that the HBD-Nordicist-ethnonationalist alliance will be more and more obvious, with Counter-Currents playing an ever-more-important role, has been, of course, shown to be accurate. With Goad’s anti-Italianism, the emergence of anti-Italian commentators, and the return of the hyper-Nordicist plagiarist “Andrew Hamilton,” Counter-Currents is (with respect to on the ground reality, as opposed to brief livestream comments) increasingly throwing its lot in with Nordicism, and abandoning any pretense of being for all Whites.
This has continued. James O’ Meara has contributed a homosexual Nordicist component (not too surprising given rumors about some other prominent Nordicists).
It is very likely that if the System/Left starts cracking down on Der Movement, the Quota Queens with their “more of the same” will be woefully unprepared and we’ll all hear and read the equivalent of “wha’ happen?”
Not yet – see next item, below.
Relating that to the Counter-Currents comments above, one prediction that can be made is that as Der Movement comes under increasing pressure from the Left, it will “contract” and become narrower in scope, both ideologically and as far as its outreach efforts. One can say it will become more “groupuscular” and “rhizome”-like.
This has not happened yet. Quite the opposite. One reason is that the Left, so far, has been more focused on the Mainstream Right and so the Quota Queens – inept failures as they are – have been slipping under the radar. So, not much pressure.
Thus, various “movement” factions will contract to what they consider their real core constituency, which should be very revealing. This would have the effect of accelerating Counter-Currents’ focus on HBD-Nordicism and petty nationalist ethnonationalism, and its abandonment of a “big tent” approach to all Whites.
Not completely true, they still on the surface support “big tent,” but it does seem they’ve given up on White ethnics, while embracing a 10% non-White population. So, it would seem we’ve altered the people included under the test. Wops out, Malkin and Kumar in.
The homosexualism of Counter-Currents would be expected to increase as well, that being a core component of the blog’s identity. When under stress, the inner self is unmasked.
There wasn’t much stress on these people in 2021, so this is deferred to the future.
One thing I failed to predict for 2021 was the extent of Der Movement’s (and Der Right’s in general) insane hysteria over the covid vaccine, the level of infiltration of rightist politics by the anti–vaxx crazies (heretofore more associated with left-leaning, spoiled, ignorant White women [or, more succinctly, White women]), and the overall covid denialism (that was already extant in 2020). Contra the Quota Queens and their assertion that I’m “paranoid” and suffering from “insanity” based on my critiques of Der Movement, in truth I continuously underestimate “movement” stupidity, irrationality, and overall craziness. I’m not going to make any predictions for 2022 about this issue because it is so obvious that “movement” madness about covid will continue that “predicting” that will be like “predicting” tomorrow’s sunrise.
Predictions for 2022:
In one sense, some of the predictions for 2021 need to be moved to 2022. Spencer out of Der Movement? Trump indicted? More Ancient Egypt archaeogenetic studies (certainly, some type of ancient DNA study is probable)? No doubt “movement” grifting will continue.
One major prediction is that the battle for the future of Der Movement will continue and intensify, with the HBD-Nordicist-ethnonationalist-Amnat alliance pushing multiracialist mainstreaming and remnants of the WN 1.0 Old Guard and the more hardcore WN 2.0 folks resisting this direction. Perhaps Michelle Malkin will become the standard bearer of the HBD-Nordicist-ethnonationalist-Amnat alliance’s mainstreaming and its multiracial Rosie and the Kids White nationalism.
I’m not going to make mainstream political predictions for the 2022 American mid-terms election – anything can happen before then and one should never underestimate the ability of the “count your chickens before they’re hatched declare victory and go home” Right to self-destruct and ruin the election.
Chances are good that Johnson will either engage in a new feud or intensify an existing one; however, I admit that is sort of in the “the sun will rise tomorrow” category.
Der Movement’s foray into anti-vaxxism suggests the high probability that it will hitch its wagon to some other absurd nonsense gurgling up from the fetid sewers of mainstream pop culture – something essentially and irrelevant to core White interests that the Quota Queens will nevertheless insist is “part of the fight against Globalism.”
I can again repeat my prediction about the revealing of moles and infiltrators.
While one can always expect some prominent person to drop out of Der Movement, the Burdi case suggests we can expect the opposite as well – previous drop-outs and apostates trying to get back in. Whether these “returns” are genuine or are people who have been “turned” and are trying to infiltrate may differ on a case-by-case basis. One thing that is difficult to discern is whether dropouts and returns are more likely during a period of apparent “movement” popularity (like the Alt Right stupidity) or during a period of apparent decline (I use the word “apparent” because I see continuous real decline in both periods, not to say there was much of a level to decline from in the first place).
Just like I predicted that the Alt Right would end up as a disaster, I now do the same for America First and the Amnats. With all of my differences with Pierce – and believe me they are many – it is clear that Der Movement never recovered from his death. The current crop of “leaders” are not fit to have cleaned Hadley’s litterbox.
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