Realism about the economic future.
One often reads smug economists and other “experts” who mock Trump’s idea (real or phony) of bringing back manufacturing jobs to America, and the overall wish of Trump supporters to “turn the clock back” against the “modern global knowledge economy.”
Putting aside all of our ideological biases against these elitist criticisms, let’s look closer at their practical argument: since the economic changes of America (globalism, a “knowledge-based” economy, creation and manipulation of ideas and information rather than of material goods) are inevitable and irreversible, those people not yet adjusted to this new economy must “adjust and be trained.” In other words, all the unemployed factory workers and other blue collar workers must be re-educated and re-trained to become just like the elitists making such suggestions.
I trust that reasonable and reality-based rational people understand the absurdity of such recommendations. But let’s spell it out for the sake of completeness; I’ll restrict myself to the two most obvious and major points.
First, given the normal distribution of intelligence and other cognitive and behavioral abilities and characteristics (including the mental flexibility to radically change professions) – and let’s not even get into the large racial differences in those metrics – it is unrealistic in the extreme to expect “re-education” and “re-training” to work for large sections of the American population. A significant portion of the American population simply do not have the intelligence and ability to adjust to the new global/knowledge economy. And even if some of these people have – or had – the raw intelligence for such adjustments, many are simply too old and mentally inflexible. And even if these people were capable of being educated to become high-powered information-based white collar professionals – who is going to pay for their education? Who is going to pay for supporting these people and their families during the re-training period? And who is going to hire retrained middle-aged red state blue collar workers as opposed to young college graduates and the constant influx of “high-skilled” immigrants?
So, no, that 55 year old unemployed coal miner from West Virginia is not going to become a software engineer, and even if he did, no one is going to hire him compared to a diseased 25 year old H-1B brownster from India.
Let’s be realistic. Only an outrageous denial of human nature, and a denial of a realistic appraisal of human ability, can lead to ridiculous recommendations that economic upheaval can be avoided by transforming the entire left side of the Bell Curve into budding computer scientists, economists, and rocket engineers. It’s an impossible dream, and those who make such suggestions are maliciously mendacious.
Second, even if the impossible came true and all these people, the majority of the American population, were able to become white collar globalist professionals, there simply are not enough jobs available for all these people. How many computer scientists, economists, and rocket engineers do we need? 100 million of them? 200 million?
Putting aside the fact that “we” are importing “high-skilled” immigrants to compete with our existing native intellectual elites, the fact is that artificial intelligence automation will do to white collar jobs what robotic automation has been, and is, doing to blue collar jobs. There are not enough of these global/knowledge-based jobs now, and there will be fewer and fewer of such jobs in the decades to come. So, we will try to shove a square peg in a round hole and train the masses for jobs that would not be available to them today and will not be available for anyone in the future?
In the short term, revolutionary upheaval can be avoided by instituting social credit/citizens dividend ideas – open payments to citizens – based on the nation’s productivity (productivity of the real educated elites and of automation) coupled to immigration restriction (one cannot combine social credit with open borders without bankrupting even a productive new economy).
In the long term, revolutionary upheaval is probably unavoidable. While the far left of the Bell Curve will take the social credit, lounge around, and reproduce in Idiocracy fashion (Should such payments be tied to limiting reproduction of the less fit? Yes, but is that realistic when the less fit a key political constituency? Or is democracy doomed in the new economy?), and the far right (no pun intended) of the Bell Curve may be actually involved in real work or at least occupy themselves with intellectual hobbies and pursuits, the grand middle of the population will be left adrift with no purpose and nothing to do. They will form a revolutionary mass of disaffected people, waiting for direction, waiting for purpose, and waiting for action.
Troubles lie ahead. Will we be able to take advantage of them?
The relevance of all of this to ethnic genetic interests should be obvious to those on Bell Curve’s right side.