Category: child equivalents

Racialist Expected Value, Process, and Results

Economic-based analysis.

Listening to some financial podcasts about ‘wealth building” I noticed some analogies to racial activism (perhaps not surprising since child equivalents of EGI can be transformed into financial impacts based on estimated “values” of a human life, e.g., for insurance purposes).

One point made was that calculating probabilities is not sufficient; one must also estimate the potential value obtained from each outcome.  Thus, outcome A may be more probable than outcome B, but if the payoff of B is far greater than that of A, it would be most prudent to invest in B rather than in A, since the “expected value” of B-oriented scenarios is greater than that for scenarios oriented around pursuing A.

This is one of the points I’ve previously made about Breezy’s “citizenism.” Yes, it may be that civic nationalism is more probable as an achievable outcome than racial nationalism (see: Trump, Donald J. as an example). Nevertheless, the potential outcome of racial nationalism is so far superior to anything achievable from civic nationalism (perhaps infinitely greater if one supposes that civic nationalism in America following current demographic trends would result in the White race replacement that racial nationalism would prevent), then it is obviously more prudent, form a cost/benefit ratio to pursue approaches leading to racial nationalist outcomes.

Another point made by financial analysts and advisers is to be process-driven rather than merely results-driven.  An example given is to imagine a process in which there is 55% probability of success and 45% probability of failure, with equal relative outcomes of gain/loss respectively (and assume there are no other approaches that would give a higher expected value than pursuing this 55:45 advantage).  A person who is purely results-driven, if they had lost after the first try, would give up, saying: I tried it and lost.  A process-driven person would realize that, over time, this approach would yield value, given a sufficient sample size of attempts.

That’s very simplistic of course, and is not an argument against considering results – after all, if you attempted this approach 1,000 times and kept on losing, those results would inform you that the process was flawed.  After all, you need feedback to judge whether the process is as effective as you originally thought.  Further, you may not have the resources to keep on losing waiting for the process to work; there are many considerations where results are important.  So, perhaps it is best to say that you should be BOTH process-driven and results-driven, not one or the other.  At the beginning, it is best to emphasize process over results, to generate sufficient sample size so that the results become relevant.  Later, the importance of a results-driven approach increases, but should never rise to the level of completely excluding process.  Indeed, process can be refined based upon results (and of course results are driven by process, modified by probability).

I’m critical of Der Movement from the basis of BOTH process (which I find stupid and wrong-headed) as well as results (decades of failure represent a sufficient sample size to judge the lack of efficacy of process).

Behold the Parasite

Jews and net EGI.

Of course, Jews are neither wasps nor fungi, nor do they stand in the same relationship to us as do the parasitic wasps and fungi to their hosts just mentioned. Jews are either a closely related species to us, or are a subspecies of the same species. In either case, as repulsive as are parasites, and as loathe as we may be to admit it, Jews are genetically quite similar to us and are in fact extensively cross-bred with us. Doesn’t this effectively rule out their being biological parasites upon us? 

No, not at all. In fact, it makes it even more likely. In 1909, an Italian entomologist named Carlo Emery discovered what is now known as Emery’s Rule. The rule states that that social parasites (that is, parasites of social species — and Homo sapiens is certainly a social species) tend to be parasites of species or genera to which they are closely related. Matt Johnston of the University of Arizona states that, “One explanation for the apparently close relationship between social parasites and their hosts is that in order to get past the hosts’ defenses, the parasite needs to have evolved communication systems similar to the host. This may be more likely if the two share a close evolutionary history.”

This is why I talk about the importance of net genetic interests (not that anyone listens). If all you care about are gross genetic interests, then you would simply measure the genetic distances involved, calculate the child equivalents, and conclude that since Jews are genetically quite similar to, and cross-bred with, Europeans, then their presence in Western societies does not exert much of an EGI cost at all. However, Jews are a highly specialized, evolved parasitic ethny with interests that are incompatible with that of Europeans, and as such Jewish behavior exerts a significant fitness cost on Europeans, so that the net effect on European EGI is enormous. Therefore, net EGI takes into account all factors that affect the genetic interests of an ethny, and provides a final tally of the outcome. If Jews promote mass alien immigration, desegregation, miscegenation, and overall societal degeneration (that imposes severe costs on, among other things, family stability and reproductive success), then their presence is extremely destructive to host EGI regardless of what the relative genetic distances are between Jews and White Gentiles. Further, if Jews consider themselves a different group than are White Gentiles, and pursue a group evolutionary strategy of their own, they would not care that their behavior damages the interests of an ethny relatively genetically similar to their own. Of course, Identity is based upon more than just genetic distances, and issues of Identity, by influencing behavior, directly affect genetic interests.

For Our German Readers: Your Genetic Loss in American Dollars

The cost of “Merkel’s Boner.”

We hear much about “Germany taking in 800,000 migrants this year.”  We also hear idiots even trying to make the case that the influx will “boost the German economy” by “providing needed workers” and “dynamic immigrants.’

So, let us look at the influx with an economic twist. I will use the crude but useful “coarse-graining” approach outlined here, which has some caveats, but is nevertheless a good approximation of what we are considering.

Assume 800,000 non-European Caucasian (NEC) immigrants, with every 8.5 immigrants imposing the loss of one child equivalent (as per On Genetic Interests), and an estimate of $5 million for the economic cost of a human life.

A quick calculation tells us that each and every German citizen of ethnic German descent will incur a loss of ~ $470.6 billion from these 800,000 migrants.  That, my friends, is more than four hundred seventy billion American dollars for each individual (ethnic) German citizen.  If you wish, you can multiply that by the total number of ethnic Germans in Germany to get the bizarrely enormous sum cost for the entire German nation.

I am sort of dubious that any sort of “economic growth” from even productive immigrants – never mind Third World brutes – can in any way even try to approach breaking even for those sums within multiple orders of magnitude.

Well, then, we will be told there is a “moral dimension” – that Germans have some sort of “moral obligation” because of their WWII “blood guilt.”  Really? Is that worth $470.6 billion apiece? I really wonder if your typical German citizen would rather “feel good about themselves” than have $470.6 billion. And if you wanted to do good, wouldn’t those billions allow you to do so, rather than having hordes of young healthy NEC men lounging around Berlin cafes parasitizing off of your society?

True, we are not talking about actual sums of money.  But consider the demographic equivalent. If Germans “want to do good for the world” they’d be in much better position to do so as an intact demographically secure German nation, with the well-known intelligence, discipline, productivity, and efficiency of the German people, than as some sort of Arabic-Turkic wasteland in the middle of what used to be Europe.  The $470.6 billion per German represents a biological investment in the Germany ethny that can yield positive results for human progress. On the other hand, the loss of the German ethny would be an irreplaceable loss for humanity.

Therefore, Germans – and Europeans as a whole – owe it to humanity, and not only to themselves, to ensure their own demographic survival.

In the News, 11/6/15

Three news stories.

One: Leucosa watch: what can you say about a race of people so pitifully cowardly that they can’t even openly state their support for a mainstream political candidate?  We are talking about Donald Trump, for heaven’s sake, not David Duke. Donald Trump – celebrity millionaire, reality TV show star, a person slated to host “Saturday Night Live” (regardless of whether or not that’s cancelled, he was still invited – would Duke be?).  Newsflash to all those “Der Tag” “movement” types, who think a White uprising is just around the corner: if Whites are afraid to tell a pollster “I support Trump,” do you really think those same marshmallows are going to “take to the hills” and “smash the System?”  

Two: One benefit of Salter that it allows a quantitative (or at least semi-quantitative) discussion of the real costs of mass migration.   For example, see this “back-of-the-envelope” analysis of the costs of the mestizo invasion of America. That puts the contrast between ethnic interests and “economic gain” right to the forefront. You can not only put a cost in “child equivalents” on any scenario, but also invoke “dollars and cents” to put it into starkly economic terms. Only Salterism allows for ultimate interests to be duly recognized and discussed in this fashion.

Three: One Jew supports the work of another Jew, said work being just another permutation of multiracial separatism. Well, they are going to do what comes naturally to them. The bigger problem is with their Gentile enablers, who help give them a platform within the “movement.”

A Rough Back of the Envelope Calculation on Executive Amnesty

Cash or check?
What is the economic cost, based on EGI, to White Americans of allowing 5 million illegals to stay in America rather than deporting them?
The following is a very rough calculation, with lots of estimates and coarse graining, but nevertheless gives a ballpark figure.
Let’s estimate that the average illegal has the genetic profile of a 50:50 mestizo.  Most of the illegals are mestizos. Some may be genetically closer to the White American average (e.g., Irish illegals), some more distant (e.g., Negro illegals).  Let’s call all of that a “wash” and go with a mestizo genetic average.
We’ll use the child equivalents from Salter’s work.  Now, the genetic data from there may be a bit out-dated, and I believe his estimate underestimates the damage, due to genetic structure not being taken into account. But, let’s use Salter’s estimates for our conservative calculations.
The loss of child equivalents to a European Caucasian from an Amerindian is 1.6.  We can halve that for the mestizo situation to 0.8.
Estimates of the “value of a human life” (e.g., for economic risk, etc. purposes) vary – a reasonable average of those estimates is $5 million.
Thus: 5 million illegals x 0.8 child equivalents x $5 million = $20 trillion.
Therefore, each and every White American is owed $20 trillion in compensation for Obama’s executive amnesty.  Of course others are owed similar – American Negroes would be owed trillions of dollars apiece as well, but that’s their problem.
So – cash or check?

Note: that is $20 trillion in today’s currency value.  Therefore, paying off such a debt is impossible: printing hundreds of quintillion dollars will obviously make it all worthless.

You can’t put a price on genocide.

Cash or Check?

Reparations from the Derb.

I must give Derbyshire credit for giving a positive review of Salter’s latest book at VDARE, behavior which contrasts to Sailer’s refusal to mention anything regarding Salter, EGI, etc. in any of his posts or essays.

But we have a problem. Using the most conservative estimate of damage to EGI, a single East Asian immigrant reduces the EGI of any European-derived person by one-half of a child equivalent. Insurance companies routinely put estimates on “the value of a human life in dollars” in the millions. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that, given his family, Derbyshire owes every White American several million dollars.

Cash or check?


A better idea.
Taylor discounts the idea of reparations for Negroes here.
That’s good, but doesn’t go far enough.  We need to demand reparations for European-Americans.
For example:
– Insurance companies put dollar values on the worth of a human life.  We can find a reasonable estimate, and then calculate all the “child equivalents” lost by European-Americans’ EGI by the migration of alien peoples, a race replacement genocide immigration fostered by the Establishment.  Thus, some estimates go as high as $7 million per life.  Given that, each and every European-American is owed many trillions of dollars in reparations.
– Reparations due to the discriminatory effects of affirmative action and other programs, as well as that of Asian ethnic nepotism.
– The destruction of our major cities by Negroes and other minorities, and the costs in lives and money from minority crime.
We can continue, but you get the idea.