Misunderstanding about science. And other news.
Granted, there is much to question here. At this point, Trump’s instincts are possibly better than Fauci’s. We’ll see. But, let’s be honest here – Fauci has always cast doubt and skepticism on the veracity of the models; in press conferences, he always stressed that the models are only as good as the assumptions that went into building them, and the data used.
True enough, Fauci’s recommendations are not in synch with the evolution of the model predictions. But he’s not a politician, and the decision of what to do is a political decision. It’s the same in warfare in American history; a general can make recommendations, but the President makes the ultimate decision. The most important point is that Fauci made very clear, multiple times, that the models are just the best “guesstimate” for a given snapshot in time.
The problem ultimately is that Der Movement – including and especially its HBD faction – does not understand how science works. They misunderstand the whole process. They do not seem to grasp hypothesis testing, the culture of skepticism, the need to question, the rejection of dogma, the whole scientific method of applied empiricism. They see only black and white, and not the shades of gray that constitute the scientific enterprise.
True enough, there are some things we can be reasonably certain of. The Earth revolves around the sun and not vice versa. The sun is not a giant burning lump of coal, but rather generates energy through nuclear fusion. Very well. But such things are the exceptions that prove the rule; they are the small islands of (more or less) established fact floating in a great sea of uncertainty. The details about a novel virus are going to be part of that uncertainty. Thus, if the models are wrong, then that’s because of flawed assumptions, insufficient data, and/or perhaps the models were incomplete. It does not mean that the experts are all stupid or mendacious or that there is a conspiracy, a hoax, and/or some dastardly cabal manipulating public perceptions so that “Jew doctors” can “sodomize our babies with toxic microchipped vaccine needles” and “give them autism.”
Indeed, one wonders if the models incorporated changes in viral virulence. If the models of mitigation only considered transmission, in the context of fixed virulence, then certainly death rates could be over-estimated. If the mitigation, by inhibiting transmission, selects for a less virulent viral strain, that can explain much. Note that the places heavily hit (so far) – the Wuhan area of China, Iran, Italy, Spain, New York – were places in which the virus was able to spread unimpeded for a significant period of time before serious mitigation was enforced. Other areas that initiated mitigation early – even if less stringent like Sweden – put barriers up to transmission and this exerted selective pressures on the virus. Granted, some data (e.g., Washington State) don’t neatly fit the pattern, but it is a hypothesis that can be tested. Maybe it’s wrong. Who knows? But you cannot jump to “it’s a hoax!” just because the modeling was inaccurate or incomplete.
Note as well that this blog never championed full lockdowns or a shutdown of the entire economy- (nor did it oppose them. My criticism of China Plague deniers and minimalizers has always been with their lies and distortions – not about policy recommendations per se. True, I am more on the side of prudence, but one should be willing to listen to arguments in favor of lesser restrictions if those arguments are made in good faith and with available data and with an understanding of science. Hysteria about “the predictions were off, it’s just a cold, a hoax to implant microchips” does not suffice. Making Fauci into some sort of cackling Bond villain also does not suffice as an argument. Note as well that some of the minimalizers were willing to “open up the economy” even if the original predictions were true – but they were not consistent, shifting between that view and the “it’s an over-stated hoax” position. If we assume that Italy and New York, etc. represent the outcome if the virus was allowed to spread unimpeded (before the necessary steps were taken), then the threat was not over-stated. What has happened to hard hit areas should dissuade sane individuals from talking about a “hoax.”
The problem is that HBD and the fetishists, etc. do “science” by starting with the conclusion that they want to be true, and then work backwards to cherry pick and/or distort and misinterpret data to fit their preconceived, dogmatic conclusion. Facts that don’t fit are ignored, misinterpreted, or unjustifiably discredited. They believe everyone doing real science behaves the same way; therefore, any changes, errors, honest misinterpretations, controversies, etc. are chalked up to either conspiracies or gross incompetence. The idea that hypotheses are being tested, data interpreted, hypotheses rejected or modified, and uncertainty and debate about findings exist, is anathema to them.
Excellent Salter presentation from 2010.
The TROPICAL world of COLOR once again complains about White racism.
The existential meaning of Asians is hatred of Whites.
Even liberals are not allowed to criticize The Holy Orientals in the slightest. When were the Chinese elevated to godhood? Inquiring minds want to know.
How long will we be in lockdown? Milady does some epidemiological modeling. Oh no wait, that’s men who are doing that.
Read this. That’s bad enough. But Derbyshire promotes the idea of Whites race-mixing with the bizarre, tropical, incredibly alien dog-eating aliens who inflicted the coronavirus plague on humanity. If White-Iranian miscegenation is a crime, then what can we say about White-Chinese?
See this. Remember when I discussed how the American scientific establishment was taken over by Asians and that they indulge in ethnic nepotism to target grant funding to their co-ethnics? The NIH chickens come home to roost.
For Easter dinner, I had a glass of red wine, a pizza, and a slice of cheesecake. Regardless of my location, it has become a tradition for me.
Important ideological considerations, no doubt.
In 2018, I was living in Ukraine and was getting to know a woman from an online dating site.
This specimen is an ethnic Dane. Thus, he was living in someone else’s nation, taking their women. Eastern Europe as a bordello for the Quota Queen crew. Ethnonationalism!
American sailor murdered by China. America’s response: Nothing.
Dear god…what a lineup of horrors. Empiricist quotient of zero.
And somewhere, someplace, a sweaty Andrew Fraser ejaculates. An Irish response. I was amused by the (correct) diagnosis of narcissism. Back in the Legion Europa days I coined the term Self Absorbed Ethnic Narcissism (SAEN), a disorder that is particularly developed among certain European subraces and ethnic groups – interestingly enough, the same ones that pat themselves on the back about how “individualist” and “disinterested” they are. Indeed, they are very ethnocentric in celebrating their lack of ethnocentrism! The absence of self-awareness is almost comical.
More than 12 million immigrants came through Ellis Island from 1892 to 1954. Almost all were white, though many were Italian, Eastern European, Jewish, or otherwise different from the Northern Europeans who founded the United State
More than 12 million immigrants came through Ellis Island from 1892 to 1954. Some were white, such as the Italian and Eastern European immigrants, although many were Jewish aliens. All were different from the British colonists who founded the United States. Earlier Northern European immigrants, such as Irish, German, and Scandinavian, were also different from the British colonists who founded the United States, albeit different to a lesser degree. However, Irish immigration was strongly opposed by nativist elements, and individuals such as Ben Franklin frowned on (non-Saxon) German immigrants and considered everyone except for the English and Saxons as “tawny” and “swarthy.”
Ben Franklin (emphasis added):
Which leads me to add one Remark: That the Number of purely white People in the World is proportionally very small. All Africa is black or tawny. Asia chiefly tawny. America (exclusive of the new Comers) wholly so. And in Europe, the Spaniards, Italians, French, Russians and Swedes, are generally of what we call a swarthy Complexion; as are the Germans also, the Saxons only excepted, who with the English, make the principal Body of White People on the Face of the Earth.
“Race realists” like the Amren crew are dishonest by nature.
Meet Der Right. Summarized: Religious, anti-science, conspiracy-obsessed, delusional, anti-empiricist, and hypocritical. Hypocrisy: You see, they are all for “freedom” but when that “freedom” conflicts with their religion (e.g., abortion, physician-assisted suicide, etc.) then all of a sudden the power of the state comes crashing down on you. Both leftists and traditionalist rightists are filth. Only Type II futurist rightists have integrity.